Okay my summer hiatus is over, I'm going to start posting again.
My take on the presidential race so far
Looking over both fields, here are my current observations & predictions about the 2008 presidential race. They’re a mix of my own thoughts with the observations of others I’ve talked to that I thought were on point:
- One of the frontrunners will win. As much as the media likes a race, and always manufactures an underdog surge just before or after New Hampshire, the frontrunner always wins these things. That will be doubly true this year with the compressed primary calendar. The last guy to win who wasn’t a frontrunner was probably Jimmy Carter. So don't bother picking a pet candidate from the underdog bunch -- they're all running for fun, or for vice president, as someone put it recently.
- The GOP field is very weak. A mormon and two angels of death. This group has the feel of the 1996 Bob Dole year: doom. And it’s not just the catastrophic presidency of Bush the Lesser. It’s just hard to find a president in the bunch. McCain is lashed to the war, and he’s going down with the ship. Giuliani is barely more presidential than Larry Flint, and he’s got nothing to offer but more fear and war. Polls indicate that Americans are deeply suspicious of the mormon religion, and that’s gotta hurt Romney in the GOP primary more than anywhere.
Fred Thompson - I was waiting to see if he would enter, he does look like the only possible president in the bunch. But, there are a couple of factors that could slow him down:
- From his rhetoric in a speech the other day, he’s already making it plain that he too is solidly in camp with the 28% of moron dead-enders in this country who still stupport the Iraq War.
- The rap I’m hearing on him is that he is among the emptiest of empty suits.
- There’s also the X-factor of the fact that he has cancer – lympoma that was diagnosed 2 years ago but is now in remission.
Hilary Clinton – spare us. She’s hated as if she’s some hardcore liberal – and you don’t even get a liberal out of the bargain, but a mushy centrist. She’s the candidate of those who think that to win votes you have to move right. That’s a fundamental error. I predict she’ll shatter in the early primaries, as Democratic voters reach for someone they think will win, as they did with John Kerry in Iowa. However, unlike Kerry the early win by Obama or Edwards may not be enough to carry them through the other contests.
Barack Obama –
- First, the guy is good. I wasn’t really giving the whole Obama craze much attention, until I heard him in an interview on NPR, in which he was asked some very tough questions, including about his racial identity, etc. His answers were pitch-perfect – thoughtful, genuine, modest and appealing. He seems like the most thoughtful of the Democrats – of all the candidates actually.
- Second, I’d like to see a little more evidence that he’s actually progressive. I know he was a community organizer & all, but that doesn’t do it for me.
- Third, what the guy needs to show to prove he can win is some toughness and backbone. Americans like their presidents to be tough, a touch ruthless even. He also needs to show some manliness, Americans won’t elect a metrosexual. Right now, Hilary Clinton’s more manly than he is.
- Of the top three, Obama’s the only one who hasn’t had his “seasoning.” That’s what the early Virginia colonists used to call the first summer for new immigrants from England, who would die of disease in large proportions during their first summer in Virginia (and were said to be “seasoned” or immune if they survived it). Clinton and Edwards have both been through the wringer of a presidential campaign and survived. There is a good chance Obama will go down in flames for one reason or another under the brutally intense spotlight that’s about to flip on.
- Edwards supporters are whispering that a black man is still unelectable in this country. The other people I hear who are most cynical about his chances are – black people. One guy I know is convinced he’ll be shot. Others just think he can’t win. This seems wrong to me. A lot of the biggest racists are part of the 28% dead-ender set anyway, and other white people who are still racists in some ways will look at many factors in addition to race and could easily imagine voting for a black (call it the Morgan Freeman effect – people can just imagine a black man in the White House now). That said, on issues of race it may well be that African-Americans’ understanding of the world is more accurate than mine.
- Edwards - I voted for him in the 2004 primary and at this point he’s still my fave. He’s the only one talking about poverty and other economic issues. He does have some strikes against him, however: While charming there’s something about him that makes me just a touch uneasy, I can’t put my finger on it. Maybe it’s just a California Boy’s unease with the whole Southern Charm thing. He just doesn’t seem as sincere as Bill Clinton. Also there’s his vote in favor of the Iraq war (though he has done exactly the right things since turning against it). Finally, his wife’s cancer is a wildcard.
- Al Gore - Ain’t gonna happen. Ever since he did the cautious, tie-yourself-in-knots thing in the 2000 election, it’s been so much fun watching what I call “the new WTF Al Gore.” But that's not the vibe of a guy with the bug.
If I had to call it today, I'd say it'll be Clinton vs. Giuliani with Clinton winning. It will be both a relief to have a sane person in the Oval Office again, but also a grim disappointment that we'll have so little to look forward to under a Hilary Clinton presidency -- 8 more years of triangulation and caution and lack of progress in moving our country forward toward living up to its promise.
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