As a followup to my post on the circular & nonlinear nature of the election campaigns, I think we can now safely say that the Democratic primary has tipped. Obama won the Democratic caucuses in Iowa by 8 percentage points. If he had gotten 4 percent fewer, and Edwards 4 percent more, it would have been a tie. Democratic turnout was reportedly about 239,000 in Iowa. That means that just 9,500 voters made Obama the winner. And now the money is sloshing his way. And the pack journalists are mobbing in his direction. And the voters are following.
I'm a little amazed at all the hype over the Obama candidacy -- it's just so comletely devoid of any content. It's a reflection of the poverty of our political public discourse. As I said in my earlier take on the race, I just wish I had more assurance he was a real progressive. On the other hand, if he is a progressive, then if he can get away with vague platitudes I'll gladly take whatever works politically. Even though I think Edwards's populist message would be stronger in the general election.
In any case, for better or worse I do think Obama's now the Democratic nominee. He's going to win New Hampshire tomorrow, and then South Carolina, and then comes what is practically a national primary on Super Tuesday, where most of what most of the voters will have heard about the candidates will be through the coverage of Iowa, NH, and SC.
My current prediction for the winner of the GOP race is McCain. I think he's the biggest threat to the Dems, and I would be happy to see Giuliani or Huckabee or Romney get the nomination because I think they're more likely to lose, but I think even McCain will ultimately lose to Obama.
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