Obama and Clinton: pros and cons

Last week with my top candidate Edwards out of the presidential race it was time to vote in the primary here in Virginia. I voted for Obama.  Here is a rough sketch of my own calculus:

Obama Disadvantages

• His whole "unite America" schtick is doomed if he is to actually try to get progressive things done
• His whole "hope" schtick is totally empty.  (Hope is an attitude appropriate vis a vis the weather, not political change.  Have the American people really become so passive and infantilized that all they can do is hope?  Do we want a president who hopes for things, or one who kicks butts and makes things happen?)
• He seems (as Paul Krugman has pointed out) to have swallowed bogus GOP talking points on several issues including, in the instance most worrisome to me, social security.
• In general, he is running a very mushy campaign (in terms of his primary theme, which is all any candidate can hope to get through the media filter -- of course he's got policy papers like any of them).  Much compared to, for example, the economic-populist offensive that Edwards was pushing.  That lack of content leaves him vulnerable to being put on the defensive by the usual bogus distracting GOP non-issues in the general election (which, for McCain, is starting just about right now).
• He has defended himself decently against Clinton's attacks, but we don't have a solid sense of how he'll stand up when the Republicans demagogue him with all the garbage in their arsenal.
• He is relatively young and inexperienced, and we have no idea how effective he'll be in office.  He could easily end up at sea, buffeted by the powerful swirling forces of Washington, unable to handle Congressional Republicans or the Democrats for that matter.
• Race is still a wildcard.  You just never can predict with confidence how Americans will go on a black candidate.

Obama Advantages

• He has run a good campaign, which speaks well for his general leadership abilities, judgment, and knack at picking good staff.
• His whole "unite America" schtick seems to be successfully attracting many centrist and even Republican voters. 
• He was a community organizer once, which kinda implies at least that maybe he's actually progressive.
• Everyone who has read his first book tells me that it's amazingly thoughtful and reflective and intelligent, qualities that it would be good to have in a president again.
• He's more likely than Clinton to flounder once in office, but he's also more likely to shine and really do exciting things for the country.
• He has a pleasing personality that comes across as steady. 
• He seems to possess a genuine star power, which just could even outlast this campaign. 
• It would be amazing to have a black man as president!

Clinton Disadvantages

• Clinton-hatred by the right (irrational and unfair as it may be) as well as her generally high negatives could hurt her in the general election
• By and large she represents the corporate, centrist, DLC wing of the Democratic party which follows some combination of a) being genuinely too conservative, and b) pursuing a misguided vision of how Democrats should seek political success.
• Her cautious, unimaginative, defensive campaign reinforces my strong suspicion that she would, like her husband, run a cautious, technocratic administration that would not advance our country.  I always thought that above all, lack of imagination was always Bill Clinton's true fatal flaw.
• Dynasty!
• Bill Clinton, as he so helpfully reminded everyone during the North Carolina primary, will be kicking around and his guiding spirit would probably pervade her administration, as invisible as he would try to be.  And people are sick of him, even people who liked him and appreciate his many good qualities.

Clinton Advantages

• Most presidents get in the Oval Office and are overwhelmed by the reality of it, and more broadly are not quite big enough mentally & psychologically to fill that chair for at least a year or so until the gee-whiz factor wears off and they learn the ropes and begin to figure out how to wield power effectively.  There would be no gee-whiz factor for Hilary Clinton.  She knows the ropes.
• More generally she has been through a lot and exudes a certain steadiness or groundedness that is reassuring in a leader.   
• Although it appears likely that she would be a Bill Clinton redux in many respects, there is a good chance that in office she would turn out to have a distinct style and substance of leadership to a degree that would surprise a lot of people. She would face new circumstances, and the temper of the times (and the mood of the Democratic constituencies) are much different now.
  
• I think she is more likable to people as her own person than she was in the role of first lady.  The people of New York have largely embraced her, and many GOP Senators even have reportedly found her pleasant to work with.  I suspect her negatives would actually go down as the nation had more exposure to her in her new role.  Maybe not a lot, but simply not having her negatives rise during the campaign would be remarkable. 
• It would be great to have a woman president.
  

Comments

[Nee AhSheng]

084M4!
Obama for president!!!

[CLINTON 4 PRESIDENT]

Hilary is more smarter than obama, she stands up & VOTES for what she believes in. Most of all she she not scared to admit when shes wrong

[kenneth mcallister]

God Bless all the U.S. Presidental canidates. No matter you win let us better our nation with peace, love, and happiness. Amen! Kenneth McAllister U.S. Marine Semper Fi! ALWAYS FAITHFUL